Overview

Malaysia continues to chart economic recovery despite challenges

The Leading Index (LI) performance is used to predict the economic direction in an average of four to six months ahead. The LI increased to 8.6 per cent to reach 109.5 points in September 2020 from 100.8 points in the same month of 2019. The monthly change of LI showed the same trend, rose at 0.9 per cent (August 2020: -0.5%). Real Imports of Semi Conductors particularly electronic integrated circuits are amongst the components that propel the growth of LI. Correspondingly, the Number of New Companies Registered especially in the Wholesale & Retail Trade subsector significantly contributed to the increase. Concurrently, the growth rate of LI (smoothed) remained above trend which indicates that Malaysia continues to chart economic recovery despite in the challenging circumstances. In addition, the announcement of 2021 Budget which targeted on rakyat’s prosperity, business continuity and economic resilience will revitalise the economy from the pandemic aftermath. However, the LI signal may be dampened by the rising number of COVID-19 cases and extension of Conditional Movement Control Order (CMCO) to date.

The Coincident Index (CI) attained 113.1 points in the reference month. The index showed a better annual growth trend by registering a decrease of 1.0 per cent in September 2020 as against negative 2.3 per cent in August 2020. The CI which reflects the current state of the economy increased further to a monthly growth of 1.0 per cent in September 2020 (August: 0.5%) with Volume Index of Retail Trade (0.3%) as the main driver.

The Diffusion Index for LI improved to 100.0 per cent for the first time since April 2019. This indicates increases for all LI components as against the previous six months. The Diffusion Index for CI reached 66.7 per cent in the current month, augmented from 0.0 per cent as recorded in August 2020.

(The complete indicators on Leading, Coincident and Lagging Indexes are shown in the following Table 4   .)

Released By:

DATO' SRI DR. MOHD UZIR MAHIDIN
CHIEF STATISTICIAN MALAYSIA
DEPARTMENT OF STATISTICS MALAYSIA
 DrUzir_Mahidin        Dr_Uzir

25 November 2020
 

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