Overview

Anticipating a brighter economic outlook towards early 2021

The Leading Index (LI) which gauge future economic direction showed an annual increase for three consecutive months. The LI expanded 7.7 per cent to 109.2 points in July 2020 from 101.4 points in July 2019. On a month-on-month basis, the LI grew 4.4 per cent. The largest positive was contributed by Bursa Malaysia Industrial Index (1.8%). The LI shows a sharp rebound indicating an economic recovery in the near future and anticipating a brighter economic outlook towards early 2021. However, the signal should be perceived with caution since the pandemic still remains in Malaysia and at global.

The Coincident Index (CI) which reflects the current economic condition, showed a better year-on-year growth by registering negative 2.4 per cent as against negative 3.1 per cent recorded in June 2020. The trend of CI gradually improves since May 2020. Meanwhile, the monthly change of CI increased 1.3 per cent supported mainly by Volume Index of Retail Trade (1.1%).

The Diffusion Indexes which measure the improvements of LI and CI components as against the past six months showed an upward trend in July 2020. The Diffusion Index for LI rose to 57.1 per cent while, the Diffusion Index for CI at 16.7 per cent.

(The complete indicators on Leading, Coincident and Lagging Indexes are shown in the following Table 4   .)

Released By:

DATO' SRI DR. MOHD UZIR MAHIDIN
CHIEF STATISTICIAN MALAYSIA
DEPARTMENT OF STATISTICS MALAYSIA
 DrUzir_Mahidin        Dr_Uzir

23 September 2020
 

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