Overview

LI slumped further to negative 5.5 per cent

The prolonged disruptions in the economy continued to affect the performance of Leading Index (LI). On a yearly basis, the LI slumped further to negative 5.5 per cent in April 2020 from negative 3.6 per cent in March 2020 driven by negative contributions from Number of Housing Units Approved and Number of New Companies Registered. Nevertheless, the LI showed a slight increase in terms of monthly percentage change by registering 0.3 per cent during the month reviewed. The positive momentum was posted by Expected Sales Value in Manufacturing sector which contributed 2.1 per cent to the LI percentage change in the reference month as businesses were allowed to resume operations in May 2020. Considering the weaker performance of annual LI, it is anticipated that the economy will remain in the contraction trajectory in the coming months.

The Coincident Index (CI) which measures the overall current economic performance, posted a sharp dropped at negative 15.6 per cent as against negative 6.9 per cent in the previous month. All CI components contributed negatively mainly by Volume Index of Retail Trade (-5.7%). Year on year, the CI slipped to negative 19.3 per cent in April 2020 from negative 3.6 per cent recorded in March 2020. These reflect businesses shut down and demand plunged in April 2020.

The Diffusion Index is used in determining the peak and trough of economic cycles. Both Diffusion Indexes in the reference month posted below 50.0 per cent. The Diffusion Index for LI at 14.3 per cent while, the Diffusion Index for CI at 0.0 per cent implies that all the CI components are decreasing.

(The complete indicators on Leading, Coincident and Lagging Indexes are shown in the following Table 4   .)

In order to assist the users, Special Issue on Malaysian Economic Indicators: Leading, Coincident & Lagging Indexes Vol. 1/2020 is published together with this release.

Released By:

DATO' SRI DR. MOHD UZIR MAHIDIN
CHIEF STATISTICIAN MALAYSIA
DEPARTMENT OF STATISTICS MALAYSIA
 DrUzir_Mahidin        Dr_Uzir

24 June 2020
 

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