Overview

Leading Index signals economic uptick in the forthcoming months

Malaysia’s Leading Index (LI) continued to record a positive growth in February 2021 from a year earlier. The increase of 8.5 per cent to 111.2 points in the reference month from 102.5 points in February 2020 was buoyed by Bursa Malaysia Industrial Index, reflecting a growth in Health Care Index, Transportation & Logistic Index and Utilities Index. The LI monthly change showed a similar trend by posting 1.1 per cent in the reference month, contributed mainly by a better performance in Real Imports of Other Basic Precious & Other Non-ferrous Metals (0.6%) and Number of New Companies Registered (0.6%). In addition, the growth rate of smoothed LI is consistently above trend and moving upwards. Therefore, the LI signals Malaysia is heading towards economic uptick in the forthcoming months.

The Coincident Index (CI) which reflects the overall current economic condition, increased 3.1 per cent month-on-month as compared to negative 0.4 per cent in January 2021. The growth was driven by the significant increase in Volume Index of Retail Trade (1.7%). On yearly basis, the growth of CI improved to negative 2.0 per cent from negative 2.2 per cent in a month before. In February 2021, most of businesses were allowed to continue operating under strict compliance with existing standard operating procedures (SOP).

The Diffusion Index is used as an additional information in determining the peak and trough in economic cycles. The Diffusion Indexes for LI and CI indicated an improvement in the reference month. The Diffusion Index for LI registered at 71.4 per cent while, the Diffusion Index for CI at 83.3 per cent.

The complete indicators on Leading, Coincident and Lagging Indexes are shown in the following Table 4   .

The full publication of the Malaysian Economic Indicators: Leading, Coincident & Lagging Indexes, February 2021 can be downloaded through eStatistik Portal.

Released By:

DATO' SRI DR. MOHD UZIR MAHIDIN
CHIEF STATISTICIAN MALAYSIA
DEPARTMENT OF STATISTICS MALAYSIA
 DrUzir_Mahidin        Dr_Uzir

23 April 2021
 

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