Overview

Leading Index hints the economy is likely to continue growing in the near term

The Leading Index (LI) is one of the tools to provide information about the future direction of an economy which registered an annual growth of 1.4 per cent in December 2019. Meanwhile, the LI monthly growth rate contracted 0.8 per cent in the last month of 2019. This was mainly affected by the decreased in Real Imports of Semi Conductors (-0.4%) and Expected Sales Value in Manufacturing sector (-0.4%). Concurrently, the growth rate of LI (smoothed) remains favourable above trend which implies that the economic growth is likely to continue in the near term without considering the internal and external shock to the economy.

The Coincident Index (CI) which indicates the current economic performance, grew 0.4 per cent in December 2019 primarily backed by the increase of 0.3 per cent in Real Salaries & Wages in Manufacturing sector. The annual change of CI rose to 2.2 per cent in the reference month as against 2.0 per cent recorded in the previous month.

The Diffusion Index for LI remained encouraging at 57.1 per cent which represents an increase of four LI components as compared to the past six months. At the same time, all components of the Diffusion Index for CI showed an increase by registering 100.0 per cent.

(The complete indicators on Leading, Coincident and Lagging Indexes are shown in the following Table 4   ).

Released By:

DATO' SRI DR. MOHD UZIR MAHIDIN
CHIEF STATISTICIAN MALAYSIA
DEPARTMENT OF STATISTICS MALAYSIA
 DrUzir_Mahidin        Dr_Uzir

24 February 2020
 

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