Overview

Leading Index edged higher in October 2019

The Leading Index (LI) which predicts the economic direction shows a better performance in October 2019. The LI expanded 1.4 per cent to reach 120.3 points from 118.6 points in September 2019. The main contributors to the increase were Real Imports of Other Basic Precious & Other Non-ferrous Metals (0.9%) and Real Imports of Semi Conductors (0.4%). The annual change of LI showed the same trend, rose 1.5 per cent in October 2019 as against 0.3 per cent in the previous month. Thus, the economy is expected to experience a better growth in February to April 2020.

The Coincident Index (CI) which measures the current economic performance, surged 0.9 per cent in the reference month as compared to negative 1.2 per cent in September 2019 (October 2019: 139.3 points; September 2019: 138.0 points). The 1.3 points increased was driven by Capacity Utilisation in Manufacturing sector and Volume Index of Retail Trade which posted 0.4 per cent, respectively. Concurrently, the annual change of CI remained at 1.6 per cent.

The Diffusion Index for LI and CI were above 50.0 per cent since August 2019. This indicates that more than half of LI and CI components posted an increase as against the past six months.

(The complete indicators on Leading, Coincident and Lagging Indexes are shown in the following Table 4   ).

Released By:

DATO' SRI DR. MOHD UZIR MAHIDIN
CHIEF STATISTICIAN MALAYSIA
DEPARTMENT OF STATISTICS MALAYSIA
 DrUzir_Mahidin        Dr_Uzir

24 December 2019
 

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