Overview

Leading Index anticipates growth in the First Quarter of 2020

The Leading Index (LI) which indicates the likely direction of economic activity in average of four to six months into the future, increased 0.1 per cent in September 2019 from negative 0.8 per cent in August 2019. The components that significantly contributed to the growth were Number of Housing Units Approved (0.4%) and Real Money Supply, M1 (0.3%). This is in line with the annual change of LI which rebounded to positive growth by registering 0.3 per cent in the reference month as against negative 0.5 per cent in the previous month. The signal of LI is consistent with the growth rate of smoothed LI which continued moving upwards, showing that the growth momentum of the economy remains favourable in January to March 2020. 

The Coincident Index (CI) which reflects the current economic performance dropped 1.2 per cent in the reference month. Five components contributed to the declined mainly Volume Index of Retail Trade (-0.7%). The annual change showed the same direction by posting a lower growth as compared to the preceding month (September 2019: 1.6%, August 2019: 2.2%).

Six out of seven components of the Diffusion Index for LI showed an increase as against the past six months by registering 85.7 per cent. At the same time, the Diffusion Index for CI remained at 83.3 per cent.

(The complete indicators on Leading, Coincident and Lagging Indexes are shown in the following Table 4   ).

Released By:

DATO' SRI DR. MOHD UZIR MAHIDIN
CHIEF STATISTICIAN MALAYSIA
DEPARTMENT OF STATISTICS MALAYSIA
 DrUzir_Mahidin        Dr_Uzir

25 November 2019
 

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