Overview

Leading Index remains positive for three consecutive months

The Leading Index (LI) predicts the movement of the overall economic direction over the next few months registered an annual growth of 1.1 per cent in the reference month. However, the LI monthly growth rate decreased 0.2 per cent in November 2019 to 120.1 points from 120.3 points recorded in the previous month. The main components driving the 0.2 points shift were Real Imports of Other Basic Precious & Other Non-ferrous Metals and Number of Housing Units Approved which contributed negative 0.4 per cent, respectively. Despite a slight decrease in the month to month percentage change, the growth rate of LI (smoothed) remained above trend to show better economic momentum in the first five months of 2020.

The Coincident Index (CI) which represents the current economic performance, increased 0.3 per cent in November 2019. This was mainly geared by Volume Index of Retail Trade (0.3%). At the same time, the annual change of CI rose to 2.0 per cent in the reference month as against 1.6 per cent recorded since September 2019.

Six out of seven components of the Diffusion Index for LI showed an increase as compared to the past six months by registering 85.7 per cent (October 2019: 57.1%). While, the Diffusion Index for CI remained favourable at 83.3 per cent since August 2019.

(The complete indicators on Leading, Coincident and Lagging Indexes are shown in the following Table 4   ).

Released By:

DATO' SRI DR. MOHD UZIR MAHIDIN
CHIEF STATISTICIAN MALAYSIA
DEPARTMENT OF STATISTICS MALAYSIA
 DrUzir_Mahidin        Dr_Uzir

24 January 2020
 

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