Overview

Malaysia’s near term economic prospect continues to face challenges following the early signals of Leading Index at 0.5 per cent as against 6.9 per cent in the previous month

In June 2021, the Leading Index (LI) continued to register a positive growth of 0.5 per cent to 105.6 points from 105.1 points in the same month last year. The increase was mainly contributed by Real Imports of Other Basic Precious & Other Non-ferrous  Metals driven by the import of copper-based metals. However, the LI declined 2.8 per cent month-on-month, reflected by the reduction in all of LI components mainly Number of Housing Units Approved (-0.9%). Looking at the direction indicated by the decreasing growth rate of smoothed LI despite remained above the trend, the LI indicates that Malaysia’s near term economic prospect continues to face challenges. This is in line with the forecasts by international and national agencies that expect a slower economic outlook for Malaysia in 2021. However, positive impacts from various government initiatives to support business continuity, along with the progress of COVID-19 vaccination rates may stimulate the business confidence and hence support the economic recovery.

The Coincident Index (CI) maintained its positive annual momentum for the past three months while posted negative 3.0 per cent in June 2021 following the implementation of Movement Control Order (MCO) 3.0. The performance of CI which reflects the current economic activity further decreased to negative 6.3 per cent month-on-month as against a decline of 1.3 per cent recorded in the preceding month, due to the noticeable decline in Capacity Utilisation in Manufacturing sector (-4.5%).

The Diffusion Indexes for LI and CI showed a downward trend in June 2021, where both indices posted below 50.0 per cent. The Diffusion index for LI at 28.6 per cent while, the Diffusion Index for CI at 33.3 per cent which implies that only two of CI components increased as against the past six months.

The complete indicators on Leading, Coincident and Lagging Indexes are shown in the following Table 4   .

The full publication of the Malaysian Economic Indicators: Leading, Coincident & Lagging Indexes, June 2021 can be downloaded through eStatistik Portal.

Released By:

DATO' SRI DR. MOHD UZIR MAHIDIN
CHIEF STATISTICIAN MALAYSIA
DEPARTMENT OF STATISTICS MALAYSIA
 DrUzir_Mahidin        Dr_Uzir

25 August 2021
 

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